Scott’s Week 15 NFL Spread Picks

I don’t know a thing.

That is not a rhetorical ploy.

Who expected the high-flying-trapeze-artist Patriots to play a more physical game than the no-frills, run-first, “we’re-from-Texas-god-damnit,” Texans?

Did anyone expect the Eagles or Chargers to win another game, period?

More madness seems imminent.New York Jets v Jacksonville Jaguars

My Pick: Philadelphia (+4) vs. Cincinnati
The Nick Foles Era is of to a rollicking start. Bryce Brown has looked better than LeShady McCoy this year, with twice as many touchdowns on about half as many carries.

My Pick: Green Bay (-2.5) @ Chicago
This is a great “fake-out” game for Chicago to win and dupe all the pundits into believing they are contenders, again. But, Green Bay is getting healthier and the Bears are not. Jay Cutler left the game last week with another mystery injury, causing me to doubt his mental resolve.

All the Packers have to do to win this game is keep three men on Brandon Marshall the entire game, he has about 1,000 more receiving yards and three times as many targets as the next closest guy, Alshon Jeffery. Its becoming more than perplexing to watch Cutler and Jason Campbell force it to Marshall, no matter the coverage. Marshall has made some spectacular plays, but they ask too much.

My Pick: Giants (+1.5) @ AtlantaBaltimore Ravens v Washington Redskins
It is foolish to pick Atlanta to lose two in row, no matter how little faith one has in them. The Giants have also been erratically swinging, on a game-to-game basis, between bumbling mediocrity and staggering brilliance. Eli Manning has surprisingly done little to push the team in either direction. Last week, David Wilson broke the Saints, I expect a quieter game from the young running back.

Perhaps the Giants take this afternoon off, but they do find night games much more exciting. I have to take them though, they are the better team.

My Pick: Tampa (+3) @ New OrleansDenver Broncos v Oakland Raiders
New Orleans continues to reel. The Defense is tired of trying to keep the team in games only to be drug back onto the field after another Drew Brees interception. Tampa gets some of their swagger back here versus the virtuosically inept Joe Vitt.

Darren Sproles has been killer though.

My Pick: St. Louis (-3) vs. Minnesota
St. Louis has overachievd for weeks and it has to stop soon. Adrian Peterson is winning games by himself.

But, its pretty dark and confusing in that dome and St. Louis is excited about football again.

My Pick: Washington (+1) @ Cleveland
I am assuming RG III plays. The last time he was listed as questionable, returning from a concussion, he played his best game of the year.

My Pick: Miami (-7) vs. Jacksonville
I don’t care about Chad Henne’s return to Miami, I care about the Jacksonville defense giving up 17 to the Sanchize led Jets last week.

My Pick: Baltimore (+2.5) vs. DenverPhiladelphia Eagles v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ray Rice hasn’t been looking himself, the Ravens just inexplicably hired Jim Caldwell as their offensive coordinator, and Denver is on a torrent, regardless I’m taking the homedogs.

My Pick: Indianapolis (+8.5) @ Houston
Houston isn’t a team that beats up on lesser competition, and Andrew Luck is more than competent, and a short week for the Texans; take the points.

My Pick: Panthers (+3) vs. San Diego
Pretty amazing watching San Diego ring-up 34 on the Steelers, they’ll probably forget how they did that. Cam Newton is playing for nothing, which is when he plays his best.

My Pick: Seattle (-5) @ Buffalo
The game is really in Toronto.

My Pick: Detroit (-6) @ Arizona
I’ve trusted the Arizona defense to keep these games close the last few weeks, no longer! I am not taking the points for the homedog. Matt Stafford to Megatron should spring to life and we should be guaranteed more television shots of Kevin Kolb praying he is not called to the field. Also, Suh never receives penalties for anything, ever, no matter how egregious the act.

My Pick: Pittsburgh (-2) @ DallasChicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings
Pittsburgh scared me last week, losing to San Diego at home, even with Big Ben back. The defense, though aging, shouldn’t let that kind of thing happen at the hands of Philip Rivers.

The hardest thing to judge with this one is whether the Cowboys are playing for pride/playoff spot/something/anything or if they are really as sad and hopeless as Jason Garrett’s wife most evenings?

Speaking of Garrett, I think Mike Tomlin wants/needs this one more.

My Pick: Oakland (-3) vs. Kansas City
Oakland is only getting three points at home to the mess known as Kansas City. But, if the line were any higher, I would be picking KC.

Jamaal Charles ran in an 80 yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage last week against the Browns. The final score was 30 – 7 in favor of the Browns.

My Pick: New England (-5.5) vs. San FranciscoChicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings
A couple off tangled issues here:

  • The Niners have more than one capable receiver in Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and Randy Moss, while Matt Schaub seemed convinced Monday that Andre Johnson over the middle or check downs to Adrian Foster were the only options the Texans had against the Pats.
  • In Monday’s dismantling of the Texans, Bill Belichick might have shown more defensive tricks than he ought of and Harbaugh had most of a week to prepare for the myriad of blitz packages.
  • Belichick may have an entirely new and tailored game plan, but Colin Kaepernick always seems poised to pull some miracle-garbage out of some hole.
  • Monday looms as the most physical, hard-nosed, not-a-single-down-taken-off, game executed by the Patriots’ defense in years. Was this effort a perennial contender’s attempt at a statement game implying the arrival of a stouter defense going forward? Or are those massive defensive linemen still drained from the trial.
  • Maybe the Texans really were not that tough.
  • This game will come down to big plays. Even with New England’s team composed of dudes off the street, the Pats just seem to make them happen.

My Pick: Tennessee (-1.5) vs. Jets
Jake Locker looked serviceable against the Colts. Another awful Monday Night.

Stone Cold Lock of the Century of the Week: Green Bay @ Chicago

SCLOTCOTW: 5-1

Last Week: 7-8-1

Overall: 30-30-2

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